Knowledge has a Half-Life

Think of all the knowledge and skill it took to navigate a sailing ship in the 1600s to the other side of the world. It is the equivalent of piloting a spaceship to the moon today. Worth many fortunes in its day. Yet, that enormous trove of knowledge is completely obsolete now. It has no economic or social value.

Before around the 1970s, people in technical fields who mastered advanced algebra held an advantage over their peers. But with the widespread use of electronic calculators, those set of skills became nothing more than a curiosity.

Up until the early 2000s, we regarded people who could remember vast amounts of "general knowledge” as highly intelligent. Today, you can look up details on even the most insignificant issue within moments using tools like Google. People who spend their time remembering vast amounts of trivia are at best eccentrics (or contestants on Jeopardy).

Today, society puts a high value on people who have the skills to program computers. Knowledge of current computer languages like Javascript, Swift, and Python command a premium in the job market. No one expects the same premium 20 years from now.

What's the pattern?

Technical skills and knowledge are highly valuable for a while - when new technology requires that skill. After a while, the supply of people with those skills exceeds the demand, and eventually new technology makes the previous generation of skills obsolete.

The next major technological shift is shaping up to be domain-general AI - computers that can substitute for a human (or enhance humans) in narrow domains. There will be a tremendous demand for the technical skills to design, produce, and manage these AIs.